Reading Steven Pinker’s “The Better Angels of our Nature” is
a lesson in the life affirming properties of good statistics. His subject –
violence –is one that arouses strong emotions, feelings that constantly lead us
to conclusions that are wildly inaccurate. The danger of terrorism is a good
example. He almost gets emotional stating the case that the threat of terrorism
in America is tiny compared to almost all other dangers to life and limb.
“The number of deaths from terrorist attacks is so small
that even minor measures to avoid them can increase
the risk of dying.” He quotes a study that concludes that 1500 Americans died
in car accidents because, fearing terrorist attacks, they chose to drive rather
than fly. Less than 3000 people died in the 11/9 attacks (I refuse to use the
illogical US method of abbreviating dates) yet every year more than 40,000
Americans die in traffic accidents, 20,000 in falls, 18,000 in homicides etc.
His thesis is counter-intuitive: that we are now enjoying
the least violent period in human history. On page 235 (of 1025 – it’s a hefty
read) he lists the “twenty worst things
that people have done to each other” and most of them we’ve never heard
of. Top of the list is the An Lushan
revolt in 8th century China which, over a period of 8 years, killed 40 million people –two thirds of the
country’s population and a sixth of the world’s. Its modern equivalent would be
430 million.
If you think our society is violent just imagine that 8
years ago, ( in 2007, the year I think of as the “year of the mud” because of
awful effect the wet summer had on festivals) an inner city riot escalated into
a full scale rebellion, which has just petered out. In this short period 40 million of us have
died, and only 20 million remain.
The worst the 20th century could manage was the
second world war which including, as all the figures quoted do, deaths from
starvation etc. killed 55 million. Since
then, according to Pinker, it’s been downhill all the way.
Thanks to modern statistics we can now get a very clear
picture of what has actually been
going on since life began. Even taking the view that there is no such thing as
absolute truth, simply by collecting information and comparing it with other
information we can arrive at conclusions which are much closer to absolute
truth than were possible in previous centuries. You don’t, for example, have to “believe” in
evolution; the build up of statistical information shows quite clearly that it
is the best explanation for the development of life.
The problem is our brains have not evolved to adapt to this
situation. It was instant emotional reaction which enabled the first homo sapiens to survive in small bands of hunter-gatherers, and George W Bush’s
“War on Terror” is a symptom of the damage this mindset can do in the 21st
century. To quote Pinker: “The 9/11 (11/9!) attacks sent the United States into
two wars that have taken far more American and British lives than the hijackers
did, to say nothing of the lives of Afghans and Iraqis. “
Why have we permitted our media to behave
as if this accumulation of knowledge didn’t exist? Why do so many parents think
that their children are at great risk from strangers when the statistics show
that family members are a far greater danger? Why do people think that old
ladies are in constant danger of physical attack when the danger is much
greater to young men? The answer to these and many similar questions is that
the media get more money by exaggerating our instinctive fears than be giving
us the facts.